To animate the notion of a malleable starting rotation, composed of this organization’s top 20 starters, think gelatinous blob. Individual forces push toward and pull back from various spots, while overall movement trends in the same direction.
The blob is getting bigger.
It was last spotted heading south.
Engrossing New York and Boston is only a matter of time.
Brett Cecil is looking more like a #3 man. Tao of Stieb waxes poetic on the thighs of Cecil, which recovered from a rough last outing and a trying stretch to start the game against the Red Sox last night, going the distance in a losing cause at Fenway Park.
8 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 SO
Jesse Litsch got hit hard wearing the Las Vegas 51s uniform July 4. He’ll have to put together a few quality starts in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League before Jays brass will consider moving him back into the rotation. Andrew Stoeten at Drunk Jays Fans speculates on how the starting rotation numbers game may play out. Through two starts for Vegas, the Litsch line does not help his cause in the starting rotation sweepstakes:
6 IP, 8 ER , 16 H, 0 BB, 5 SO
Despite putting together a promising start to the season in Double-A, Reidier Gonzalez is again getting pounded by PCL hitters.
70.1 IP, 2.56 ERA, 1.21 WHIP – New Hampshire
22.1 IP, 11.69 ERA, 2.60 WHIP – Las Vegas
It is highly unlikely he will be called up to Toronto when the roster expand from 25 to 40.
Joel Carreno has been an Eastern League leader and strikeout master for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats in 15 games this season.
90.2 IP (7th), 3.18 ERA (8th), 1.18 WHIP (8th), 111 SO (2nd)
Compare with Zach Stewart through 13 starts:
75.2 IP (26th), 4.04 ERA (25th), 1.41 WHIP (27th), 53 SO (41st)
Robert Ray, thought to have been released outright by the Blue Jays May 19, 2011, is, in fact, still in the organization. Signed as a free agent on May 21, 2011, Ray has been in the New Hampshire Fisher Cats starting rotation since June 12. He yesterday logged his second quality start in five tries.
27.0 IP, 7.33 ERA, 1.63 WHIP , 23 SO
Since his promotion from Dunedin to New Hampshire, Henderson Alvarez has started nine games for the Fisher Cats.
53.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 37 SO
Also making the jump to the Blue Jays Double-A starting rotation, Chad Jenkins has started five games. The 2009 first round draft pick would also seem to belong.
35.0 IP, 3.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 21 SO
Considering the Jays organization has promoted two of its better young pitchers (Drabek and Stewart) directly from Double-A to the Big Leagues, it is within the realm of possibility that Carreno, Alvarez, or Jenkins could get a look sooner than later.
Dustin McGowan, who was reported to have been shut down due to shoulder soreness, did miss a simulated start but threw two bullpen sessions instead last week. Tonight, July 6, he started his second game for the Dunedin Blue Jays, throwing two scoreless innings before youngster Drew Hutchison replaced him.
The 20-year-old Hutchison, a 15th round selection in 2009, has been promoted to Dunedin from the Lansing Lugnuts. In his first two starts, June 26 and July 1, Hutchison did not allow a run. He was pitching in his third game at the time of this posting.
Jesse Litsch barrels along the comeback trail, making the jump from Lansing to New Hampshire. His two starts for the Double-A Fisher Cats have bested the one in A-ball the previous week, where he gave up three runs in two(+) innings of work.
After 3.2 shutout innings June 23, Litsch lasted five innings and gave up one run June 28. His next start will likely take place in a Las Vegas 51s uniform.
The question, however, is whether the Jays starting rotation will a have a space available for Litsch when he is ready. With Villanueva pitching so reliably, I would be inclined to think not yet.
If anyone gets the yank, it should be Jo Jo Reyes, especially if his next start ends as soon as his last one did (3.2 IP, 6 ER).
The .363 blog posted an interesting take yesterday on the shelf life of Jo Jo.
Brad Mills, June 26, went six innings for the 51s, allowing four earned runs, days before getting passed up for a Toronto promotion. Though he seems to have hit a bit of a rough patch in the Pacific Coast League, statistically, he remains at the top among all starting pitchers there:
3.72 ERA (3rd), 101.2 IP (2nd), 1.28 WHIP (2nd), 92 SO (1st)
Brett Cecil, June 23, also went six innings for the 51s in his last start, allowing five earned runs. The Jays called him up anyway June 29. Cecil’s velocity has returned, touching 93 and averaging 89 mph, which returns the 6-10 mph differential considered necessary for an effective change-up.
Discounting two God-awful performances for Las Vegas, Cecil has almost matched Brad Mills in core performance measurements. Cecil also has something Mills may never have: a 15 win season at the major league level.
In related news, the Zach Stewart flirtation is over. See you in September, Zach. New Hampshire’s lucky to have you. I’m sure you will be fighting hard for your return and a pass to a proper rookie season in 2012.
I still think his ticket ought to include a pass through Las Vegas.
Upon being reactivated to the 25-man roster, Cecil alluded to the very real difference between pitching in the Pacific Coast and Majors, saying he had never had to base pitch selection on which way the wind is blowing. Perhaps it is that sort of thing the Jays want to avoid with Zach Stewart, having returned him to the Fisher Cats of the Double-A Eastern League.
Only nine PCL starting pitchers now hold an ERA below 4.00, while just 27 have ERA below 5.00 in the 16-team league.
Among them, the Jays forgettable 5th starter of Spring 2010, Dana Eveland, is enjoying a bit of success in that league. His 7-4 record and 3.86 ERA through 16 starts (91 IP) for the Albuquerue Isotopes may serve to give the 27-year-old another shot with a major league club. Just so long as it’s not with the Jays, preferably with an AL East squad. Eveland went 3-4 with a 6.45 ERA in 44.2 IP before the Jays traded him to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Ronald Uviedo, June 1, 2010.
As regards another former 5th starter, I would be shocked to ever see Scott Richmond start a regular season game for the Blue Jays. The #3 man in Las Vegas, has gone 4-6 with a 6.26 ERA and given up 14 HR in hitter-friendly air. In my estimation, the April 2009 MLB rookie of the month, now sits 11th in the organization’s depth chart.
My characterization of depth chart is one of constant malleability that considers current performance, health, and major league readiness as its main criteria, but also takes into account perceived statistical blips and temporary setbacks, such as in the case of Brett Cecil. My top five, though not in the same order as Bluejays. com or Torontostar. com, will not include players outside the starting rotation.
That said, when Litsch was still with the Lansing Lugnuts and Cecil still finding his form with the Las Vegas 51s, I believe Brad Mills was the most deserving candidate to take on the spot surrendered by Kyle Drabek.
Since Mark Rzepczynski has adjusted so well to his new role as lefty-specialist in middle relief, I’ve left him off this list.
- Ricky Romero
- Brandon Morrow
- Brett Cecil
- Carlos Villanueva
- Jo Jo Reyes
- Jesse Litsch
- Brad Mills
- Kyle Drabek
- Zach Stewart
- Dustin McGowan
- Scott Richmond
Former Canadian Olympian Paul Spoljaric has retired. Spoljaric pitched six seasons in the big leagues with the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners. He hung on until age 40, pitching among the best of the Intercounty Baseball League for the Toronto Maple Leafs and Barrie Baycats.
Former Jays badboy Josh Towers left his job with the Diablos Rojos of Mexico City for a return to employment in United States with the Camden Riversharks of the Independent Atlantic Professional Baseball League. More updates on Josh to come.
Alex Anthopolous cautiously mused about the possibility of Dustin McGowan, who touched 96 m.p.h. the other day, joining the starting rotation come September. How this would relate to his status on the Blue Jays roster, and another potential contract renewal, will depend largely on his progress in the 30 days following the end of extended spring training, at which time McGowan will have to either join the 25-man roster or clear waivers, in order to continue rehabbing with a Jays minor league outfit.
Anthopoulos spoke this afternoon with Bob McCown and Stephen Brunt on Prime Time Sports about Dustin, the state of the Blue Jays rotation, and the implications of Yunel Escobar’s new contract.