Category: Dustin McGowan

The Blob

Blue Jays starting rotation as The Blob

The blob is nothing if not unpredictable. If you asked the most seasoned baseball analysts and Blue Jay fans in April who would be holding up the back-end of the starting rotation by August, it is unlikely even two of 100 would have chosen Brad Mills and Henderson Alvarez to be there.

The tendency of injury in MLB starting rotations and the depth of talent and competition in the organization have combined to see 10 young pitchers (Romero, Morrow, Reyes, Drabek, Villanueva, Cecil, Litsch, Mills, Stewart, Alvarez), all 27 and under, start for the Blue Birds.

1. Ricky Romero is the only one, who has not missed a start due to injury or seen time in the minors. The top three (Romero, Morrow, Cecil) have, more or less, found their form and consistency.

4. Brad Mills needs a quality start tonight, if he wants to stay out of Las Vegas.

5. Henderson Alvarez will likely get the Zach Stewart treatment: three starts, more if he doesn’t get hit hard.

6. Jesse Litsch remains in the bullpen. He may yet start some games, if others falter or injure.

7. Kyle Drabek, see you in September.

8. Dustin McGowan made the jump to New Hampshire Double-A last week. Eight scoreless innings of work there is a great sign.

9. Joel Carreno. I’m surprised this guy doesn’t get more attention. He’s been projected as a big league reliever, even though he’s arguably been the Fisher Cats ace this season.

10. Chad Jenkins, next September or 2013.

11. Nestor Molina, next September or 2013.

12. Deck McGuire made the jump to New Hampshire, before sitting down for a rest on the 7-day disabled list. Next September at earliest.

The blob’s shifting mass:
  1. Ricky Romero (26)Henderson Alvarez, in the starting rotation for now
  2. Brandon Morrow (27)
  3. Brett Cecil (25)
  4. Brad Mills (26)
  5. ↑Henderson Alvarez (21)
  6. ↓Jesse Litsch (26) – Toronto bullpen
  7. Kyle Drabek (23) – Las Vegas
  8. Dustin McGowan (29) – New Hampshire
  9. Joel Carreno (24) -New Hampshire
  10. ↑Chad Jenkins (23) – New Hampshire
  11. ↑Nestor Molina (22) – New Hampshire
  12. Deck McGuire (22) – New Hampshire (7-day DL)
  13. ↑P.J. Walters – (26) – Las Vegas
  14. ↓Chad Beck (26) – Las Vegas
  15. Robert Ray (27) – Las Vegas
  16. ↑Yohan Pino (27) – New Hampshire
  17. ↑Willie Collazo (31) – New Hampshire
  18. Drew Hutchison (20) – Dunedin
  19. Ryan Tepera (23) -Dunedin
  20. ↑Asher Wojciechowski – Dunedin

The fortune of Brad Mills

Brad Mills makes the rotation, Brad Mills(er) time, starting rotation sweepstakes Jo Jo Reyes is out. Brad Mills is in, at least for today. Jesse Litsch, also called up, will work out of the bullpen, in the wake of the departure of Mark Rzepcynski, Jason Frasor and Octavio Dotel.

Welcome Colby Rasmus. Hopefully, he and Travis Snider will push each other to meet their ubiquitously spoken of potential.

As of Wednesday July 27, GM Alex Anthopolous, video seen at Getting Blanked, had only stated that Brad Mills was called up for temporary bullpen depth, until the Blue Jays new pitchers (P.J. Walters and Trevor Miller) arrived. A decision had not yet been made on who would start Saturday’s game. How quickly things change in these starting rotation sweepstakes. Brad Mills is our #5.

According to Mike Wilner on the Jays Talk, Mills is likely getting the start today as a way of showing him off as potential trade bait, before the deadline strikes Sunday. The following John Farrell quote from bluejays. com, provides some context:

“The fact that Brad has thrown the ball exceptionally well in Las Vegas, I think he’s earned the spot,” manager John Farrell said. “He’s got the opportunity to take this start and run with it.”

Whatever the case may be, Mills deserves at least a 10 game stint in some major league ball club’s starting rotation.

He’s dominated in Triple-A, unlike Brett Cecil, Jesse Litsch and Kyle Drabek. He’s got a lot to prove at the big league level, and I think he’s about ready to do it.

Zach Stewart is out, no longer part of the puzzle. Our depth of starting rotation makes losing Zach a moot point, (in the modern sense of the term).

I don’t think Luis Perez has earned his shot in the rotation, though look for him to rejoin the big club’s bullpen soon.

Carlos Villanueva will have to pitch better than he did Thursday over his next three starts, especially if Mills hangs around, Litsch pitches well in long relief and Kyle Drabek continues to bring his ERA back down to Earth.

Exciting times, indeed.

Chad Beck made the jump to Las Vegas this week. Deck McGuire is now a New Hampshire Fisher Cat, and Dustin McGowan is now up to pitching three innings per start with Dunedin. Joel Carreno and Henderson Alvarez are knocking on the Blue Jays door. It will be interesting to see if either gets the chance to show his stuff when the roster expands to 40 come September.

The race is always on. The climb is great – the fall is depth.

  1. Ricky Romero (26)
  2. Brandon Morrow (27)
  3. Brett Cecil (25)
  4. Carlos Villanueva (27)
  5. ↑Brad Mills (26)
  6. ↑Jesse Litsch (26) – Toronto bullpen
  7. ↑Kyle Drabek (23) – Las Vegas
  8. ↑Dustin McGowan (29) – Dunedin
  9. ↑Joel Carreno (24) -New Hampshire
  10. ↑Luis Perez (26) – Las Vegas
  11. ↑Henderson Alvarez (21) – New Hampshire
  12. Chad Jenkins (23) – New Hampshire
  13. ↑Deck McGuire (22) – New Hampshire
  14. ↑Chad Beck (26) – Las Vegas
  15. ↓Scott Richmond (31) – Las Vegas
  16. ↓Robert Ray (27) – Las Vegas
  17. ↑Nestor Molina (22) -Dunedin
  18. ↑B.J. LaMura  (30) – New Hampshire
  19. ↑Drew Hutchison (20) – Dunedin
  20. ↑Ryan Tepera (23) -Dunedin

Gelatinous movement


To animate the notion of a malleable starting rotation, composed of this organization’s top 20 starters, think gelatinous blob. Individual forces push toward and pull back from various spots, while overall movement trends in the same direction.

The blob is getting bigger.

It was last spotted heading south.

Engrossing New York and Boston is only a matter of time.

Brett Cecil is looking more like a #3 man. Tao of Stieb waxes poetic on the thighs of Cecil, which recovered from a rough last outing and a trying stretch to start the game against the Red Sox last night, going the distance in a losing cause at Fenway Park.

8 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 SO

Jesse Litsch got hit hard wearing the Las Vegas 51s uniform July 4. He’ll have to put together a few quality starts in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League before Jays brass will consider moving him back into the rotation. Andrew Stoeten at Drunk Jays Fans speculates on how the starting rotation numbers game may play out. Through two starts for Vegas, the Litsch line does not help his cause in the starting rotation sweepstakes:

6 IP, 8 ER , 16 H, 0 BB, 5 SO

Despite putting together a promising start to the season in Double-A, Reidier Gonzalez is again getting pounded by PCL hitters.

70.1 IP, 2.56 ERA, 1.21 WHIP – New Hampshire

22.1 IP, 11.69 ERA, 2.60 WHIP – Las Vegas 

It is highly unlikely he will be called up to Toronto when the roster expand from 25 to 40.

Joel Carreno has been an Eastern League leader and strikeout master for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats in 15 games this season.

90.2 IP (7th), 3.18 ERA (8th), 1.18 WHIP (8th), 111 SO (2nd)

Compare with Zach Stewart through 13 starts:

75.2 IP (26th), 4.04 ERA (25th), 1.41 WHIP (27th), 53 SO (41st)

1 Blue Jays Way provides an audio interview with Carreno  from his Lansing Lugnut days, as well as a written interview with Stewart following his recent return to New Hampshire.

Robert Ray, thought to have been released outright by the Blue Jays May 19, 2011, is, in fact, still in the organization. Signed as a free agent on May 21, 2011, Ray has been in the New Hampshire Fisher Cats starting rotation since June 12. He yesterday logged his second quality start in five tries.

27.0 IP, 7.33 ERA, 1.63 WHIP , 23 SO

Since his promotion from Dunedin to New Hampshire, Henderson Alvarez has started nine games for the Fisher Cats.

53.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 37 SO

Also making the jump to the Blue Jays Double-A starting rotation, Chad Jenkins has started five games. The 2009 first round draft pick would also seem to belong.

35.0 IP, 3.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 21 SO

Considering the Jays organization has promoted two of its better young pitchers (Drabek and Stewart) directly from Double-A to the Big Leagues, it is within the realm of possibility that Carreno, Alvarez, or Jenkins could get a look sooner than later.

Dustin McGowan, who was reported to have been shut down due to shoulder soreness, did miss a simulated start but threw two bullpen sessions instead last week. Tonight, July 6, he started his second game for the Dunedin Blue Jays, throwing two scoreless innings before youngster Drew Hutchison replaced him.

The 20-year-old Hutchison, a 15th round selection in 2009, has been promoted to Dunedin from the Lansing Lugnuts. In his first two starts, June 26 and July 1, Hutchison did not allow a run. He was pitching in his third game at the time of this posting.

Starting rotation sweepstakes

The race is always on. The climb is great – the fall is depth.
  1. Ricky Romero (26) Joel Carreno, prospect ascending the ranks
  2. Brandon Morrow (26)
  3. Brett Cecil (25) 
  4. Carlos Villanueva (27) 
  5. Jo Jo Reyes (26) 
  6. Brad Mills (26) – Las Vegas
  7. Jesse Litsch (26) – Las Vegas
  8. Kyle Drabek (23) – Las Vegas
  9. Zach Stewart (24) – New Hampshire
  10. Dustin McGowan (29) – Dunedin
  11. Scott Richmond (31) – Las Vegas
  12. Joel Carreno (24) – New Hampshire
  13. Henderson Alvarez (21) – New Hampshire
  14. Chad Jenkins (23) – New Hampshire
  15. Deck McGuire (21) – Dunedin
  16. Nestor Molina (22) – Dunedin
  17. Reidier Gonzalez (25) – Las Vegas
  18. Mike MacDonald (29) – Las Vegas
  19. Chad Beck (26) – New Hampshire
  20. Drew Hutchison (20) – Dunedin

Toronto

3.  Brett Cecil – June 30, 6.1 IP, 6 ER, defensive lapses

5.  Jo Jo Reyes – July 3, 6.0 IP, 4 ER

Las Vegas

6.  Brad Mills –  July 2, 7 IP, 2 ER

7.  Jesse Litsch – July 4, 3 IP, 7 ER

8.  Kyle Drabek – June 30, 6 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB

New Hampshire

9.  Zach Stewart – July 3, 6 IP, O ER (3 R)

Dunedin

10.  Dustin McGowan – July 2, 33 pitches, 2/3 IP, 3 ER, defensive lapses

Following his 30-day rehabilitation, if he is not yet ready to rejoin the Blue Jays, McGowan may rest and/or start a new 30-day rehab stint.

Baseball in J Minor

Jesse Litsch, Lansing to New Hampshire to Las VegasAs it concerns demoted and rehabilitating Blue Jays starters, the news out of New Hampshire is better than out of Las Vegas.

Jesse Litsch barrels along the comeback trail, making the jump from Lansing to New Hampshire. His two starts for the Double-A Fisher Cats have bested the one in A-ball the previous week, where he gave up three runs in two(+) innings of work.

After 3.2 shutout innings June 23, Litsch lasted five innings and gave up one run June 28. His next start will likely take place in a Las Vegas 51s uniform.

The question, however, is whether the Jays starting rotation will a have a space available for Litsch when he is ready. With Villanueva pitching so reliably,  I would be inclined to think not yet.

If anyone gets the yank, it should be Jo Jo Reyes, especially if his next start ends as soon as his last one did (3.2 IP, 6 ER).

The .363 blog posted an interesting take yesterday on the shelf life of Jo Jo.

Brad Mills is not leaving Las Vegas yetBrad Mills is not leaving Las Vegas yet

Brad Mills, June 26, went six innings for the 51s, allowing four earned runs, days before getting passed up for a Toronto promotion. Though he seems to have hit a bit of a rough patch in the Pacific Coast League, statistically, he remains at the top among all starting pitchers there:

3.72 ERA (3rd), 101.2 IP (2nd), 1.28 WHIP (2nd), 92 SO (1st)

Brett Cecil, June 23, also went six innings for the 51s in his last start, allowing five earned runs. The Jays called him up anyway June 29. Cecil’s velocity has returned, touching 93 and averaging 89 mph, which returns the 6-10 mph differential considered necessary for an effective change-up.

Discounting two God-awful performances for Las Vegas, Cecil has almost matched Brad Mills in core performance measurements. Cecil also has something Mills may never have: a 15 win season at the major league level.

In related news, the Zach Stewart flirtation is over. See you in September, Zach. New Hampshire’s lucky to have you. I’m sure you will be fighting hard for your return and a pass to a proper rookie season in 2012.

I still think his ticket ought to include a pass through Las Vegas.

Upon being reactivated to the 25-man roster, Cecil alluded to the very real difference between pitching in the Pacific Coast and Majors, saying he had never had to base pitch selection on which way the wind is blowing. Perhaps it is that sort of thing the Jays want to avoid with Zach Stewart, having returned him to the Fisher Cats of the Double-A Eastern League.

Only nine PCL starting pitchers now hold an ERA below 4.00, while just 27 have ERA below 5.00 in the 16-team league.

Among them, the Jays forgettable 5th starter of Spring 2010, Dana Eveland, is enjoying a bit of success in that league. His 7-4 record and 3.86 ERA through 16 starts (91 IP) for the Albuquerue Isotopes may serve to give the 27-year-old another shot with a major league club. Just so long as it’s not with the Jays, preferably with an AL East squad. Eveland went 3-4 with a 6.45 ERA in 44.2 IP before the Jays traded him to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Ronald Uviedo, June 1, 2010.

As regards another former 5th starter, I would be shocked to ever see Scott Richmond start a regular season game for the Blue Jays. The #3 man in Las Vegas, has gone 4-6 with a 6.26 ERA and given up 14 HR in hitter-friendly air. In my estimation, the April 2009 MLB rookie of the month, now sits 11th in the organization’s depth chart.

My characterization of depth chart is one of constant malleability that considers current performance, health, and major league readiness as its main criteria, but also takes into account perceived statistical blips and temporary setbacks, such as in the case of Brett Cecil. My top five, though not in the same order as Bluejays. com or Torontostar. com, will not include players outside the starting rotation.

That said, when Litsch was still with the Lansing Lugnuts and Cecil still finding his form with the Las Vegas 51s, I believe Brad Mills was the most deserving candidate to take on the spot surrendered by Kyle Drabek.

Since Mark Rzepczynski has adjusted so well to his new role as lefty-specialist in middle relief, I’ve left him off this list.

  1. Ricky Romero
  2. Brandon Morrow
  3. Brett Cecil
  4. Carlos Villanueva
  5. Jo Jo Reyes
  6. Jesse Litsch
  7. Brad Mills
  8. Kyle Drabek
  9. Zach Stewart
  10. Dustin McGowan
  11. Scott Richmond
The oft-injured Robert Ray, who filled in adequately in the 2010 Jays rotation (4 GS, 24.1 IP, 4.44 ERA, 1-2) and pitched 3.2 innings of shutout relief last September, was released May 19, 2011. Dustin McGowan, contrary to first report, has not been shut down due to forearm stiffness. He threw a full bullpen session Monday. I’ll be waiting on the proverbial seat-edge to learn whether he pitches his next scheduled simulated game. To see him rejoin the starting rotation in September would be a thing of miraculous beauty.

Out of the “Wilnerness”

Out of the Wilnerness, Indiana, Mike Wilner, Adam Lind,

From the native land of Adam Lind, it’s Chris from Indiana,  a first-time caller. That’s me. Or at least it was tonight on Jays Talk with sports personality Mike Wilner. 

I gotta say, I can’t wait to get back to Toronto, see some great friends, pay my respects to the Island, and make that 500-level season pass pay.

One week and counting, down.

Visiting with Roy Halladay, before an “engaging” party with some of those great friends will be just what the Doc ordered for this Canada Day weekend. 

Baseball North, here I come.

Despite how fast I spoke and stuttered, I managed to articulate my confusion (or confuse my articulation) about the Sisyphean comeback of Blue Jays pitcher Dustin McGowan.

On Mike Wilner’s Tim Freaking Hudson post, drag the little grey bar of the audio to 56 minutes 15 seconds for a listen.

Mike Wilner: Chris is in Indiana, Chris.

Chris: Yes, I was…..I love the show. I was hoping you might help me better understand the Dustin McGowan situation. I read in one of the major papers that there’s 30 days from the end of extended spring training June 8 for the Jays to decide whether to put him on the 25-man roster or put him through waivers. And I also heard Anthopoulos talking today on the radio about…he was musing cautiously about putting him in the rotation for September and the timeline’s for September. I’m just wondering how the contract and the situation works out in terms of the roster moves the Jays would have to make. Assuming he….

MW: If you bring him up in September, you don’t have to make any move. Rosters are expanded in September, but they would have to make room for him on the 40-man roster, which is full right now. He’s on the 60-day disabled list, so he doesn’t take up a space on the 40-man roster. What you heard about 30 days from the end of extended spring-training is not really true. We had been led to believe that, but we now understand that you can still keep a guy…..even though extended spring training is over, and it’s over now. You don’t have to send a guy out on a rehab assignment until he’s ready to rehab. So Dustin McGowan’s not ready to rehab yet. Once he goes out on an official rehab assignment, it can be no more than 30 days. And at the end of those 30 days, if he’s healthy, he has to come to the major leagues or…..McGowan, in McGowan’s case because he’s out of options, he would have to be put on waivers, if they want to keep him down in the minor leagues.

Chris: Okay, I think I got it. Thanks a lot.

MW: Alright, you’re welcome, and since the Blue Jays are saying early September -that’s what Alex Anthopoulos said today- that means he’s not going to go out on the rehab assignment until early August. And they’re being very very careful with him. At the end of June, he’s going to go three innings every five days. He’s going to do that twice. Then, he’s going to do four innings every five days twice, then five innings every five days twice, and they’re going to hopefully get him up to seven. And if he’s capable of doing that, it’s a minor miracle for one thing, and it’s fantastic news for another. And then Dustin McGowan will come back, if all goes well, be in the rotation next year, and he’s a free agent after next year (laughs). So we’ll see how that works.

Most days, I’m here without a phone, but Skype got the job done, mostly. 

Here’s the text from my follow-up question and answer in the comments section from Miked Up:

Hi Mike,

Thanks for clearing up some of the confusion around Dustin McGowan scenarios. I meant to ask, if all goes well, and he begins his rehab assignment say August 1, how will the Jays have been preparing him up to that point? How will he be incrementally “gaming up” to August 1, without the benefit of pitching to batters like in extended spring training? The IBL Leafs could always use another reliever! I jest, but am curious whether rules exist that would preclude him from pitching a little semi-professional or amateur ball.

MW: Yes, those rules exist. But he can pitch simulated games to real batters, and that’s what he’s going to be doing up until it’s time to send him out on the official assignment.

Right after my call is an amusing affirmation of the truly acrobatic nature of John McDonald’s game.

Johnny Mac, Wizard, Genius

MW: Dave is in Guelph. Hey Dave.

Dave: I’m just a huge fan of Johnny Mac.

MW: Well, who isn’t?

Dave: Well, he’s a wizard in the infield, acrobat in the outfield.

MW: What?

Dave: Johnny Mac?

MW: He’s played maybe two innings in the outfield in his life.

Dave: Well…

MW: I wouldn’t go so far as…..

Dave: Well, he’s an acrobat.

MW: Okay.

Dave: Anyways, he’s good on defense.

MW: Yes, he is.

Baseball in J Minor

Jesse Litsch in J Minor

Jesse the Litsch threw 2+ innings for the Lansing Lugnuts yesterday, as part of his rehabilitaton. Read of that drama at 1 Blue Jays Way.

The Toronto Maple Leafs Baseball Club, who play every Saturday (2pm) at Christie Pits, have finally updated their website to one that is less reminiscent of the video game Pong.

Paul Spoljaric retired

Former Canadian Olympian Paul Spoljaric has retired. Spoljaric pitched six seasons in the big leagues with the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners. He hung on until age 40, pitching among the best of the Intercounty Baseball League for the Toronto Maple Leafs and Barrie Baycats.

Former Jays badboy Josh Towers left his job with the Diablos Rojos of Mexico City for a return to employment in United States with the Camden Riversharks of the Independent Atlantic Professional Baseball League. More updates on Josh to come.

The Odyssey, By Dustin McGowan update

Alex Anthopolous cautiously mused about the possibility of Dustin McGowan, who touched 96 m.p.h. the other day, joining the starting rotation come September. How this would relate to his status on the Blue Jays roster, and another potential contract renewal, will depend largely on his progress in the 30 days following the end of extended spring training, at which time McGowan will have to either join the 25-man roster or clear waivers, in order to continue rehabbing with a Jays minor league outfit.

Anthopoulos spoke this afternoon with Bob McCown and Stephen Brunt on Prime Time Sports about Dustin, the state of the Blue Jays rotation, and the implications of Yunel Escobar’s new contract.