Category: Dunedin Blue Jays

The Blob

Blue Jays starting rotation as The Blob

The blob is nothing if not unpredictable. If you asked the most seasoned baseball analysts and Blue Jay fans in April who would be holding up the back-end of the starting rotation by August, it is unlikely even two of 100 would have chosen Brad Mills and Henderson Alvarez to be there.

The tendency of injury in MLB starting rotations and the depth of talent and competition in the organization have combined to see 10 young pitchers (Romero, Morrow, Reyes, Drabek, Villanueva, Cecil, Litsch, Mills, Stewart, Alvarez), all 27 and under, start for the Blue Birds.

1. Ricky Romero is the only one, who has not missed a start due to injury or seen time in the minors. The top three (Romero, Morrow, Cecil) have, more or less, found their form and consistency.

4. Brad Mills needs a quality start tonight, if he wants to stay out of Las Vegas.

5. Henderson Alvarez will likely get the Zach Stewart treatment: three starts, more if he doesn’t get hit hard.

6. Jesse Litsch remains in the bullpen. He may yet start some games, if others falter or injure.

7. Kyle Drabek, see you in September.

8. Dustin McGowan made the jump to New Hampshire Double-A last week. Eight scoreless innings of work there is a great sign.

9. Joel Carreno. I’m surprised this guy doesn’t get more attention. He’s been projected as a big league reliever, even though he’s arguably been the Fisher Cats ace this season.

10. Chad Jenkins, next September or 2013.

11. Nestor Molina, next September or 2013.

12. Deck McGuire made the jump to New Hampshire, before sitting down for a rest on the 7-day disabled list. Next September at earliest.

The blob’s shifting mass:
  1. Ricky Romero (26)Henderson Alvarez, in the starting rotation for now
  2. Brandon Morrow (27)
  3. Brett Cecil (25)
  4. Brad Mills (26)
  5. ↑Henderson Alvarez (21)
  6. ↓Jesse Litsch (26) – Toronto bullpen
  7. Kyle Drabek (23) – Las Vegas
  8. Dustin McGowan (29) – New Hampshire
  9. Joel Carreno (24) -New Hampshire
  10. ↑Chad Jenkins (23) – New Hampshire
  11. ↑Nestor Molina (22) – New Hampshire
  12. Deck McGuire (22) – New Hampshire (7-day DL)
  13. ↑P.J. Walters – (26) – Las Vegas
  14. ↓Chad Beck (26) – Las Vegas
  15. Robert Ray (27) – Las Vegas
  16. ↑Yohan Pino (27) – New Hampshire
  17. ↑Willie Collazo (31) – New Hampshire
  18. Drew Hutchison (20) – Dunedin
  19. Ryan Tepera (23) -Dunedin
  20. ↑Asher Wojciechowski – Dunedin
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The fortune of Brad Mills

Brad Mills makes the rotation, Brad Mills(er) time, starting rotation sweepstakes Jo Jo Reyes is out. Brad Mills is in, at least for today. Jesse Litsch, also called up, will work out of the bullpen, in the wake of the departure of Mark Rzepcynski, Jason Frasor and Octavio Dotel.

Welcome Colby Rasmus. Hopefully, he and Travis Snider will push each other to meet their ubiquitously spoken of potential.

As of Wednesday July 27, GM Alex Anthopolous, video seen at Getting Blanked, had only stated that Brad Mills was called up for temporary bullpen depth, until the Blue Jays new pitchers (P.J. Walters and Trevor Miller) arrived. A decision had not yet been made on who would start Saturday’s game. How quickly things change in these starting rotation sweepstakes. Brad Mills is our #5.

According to Mike Wilner on the Jays Talk, Mills is likely getting the start today as a way of showing him off as potential trade bait, before the deadline strikes Sunday. The following John Farrell quote from bluejays. com, provides some context:

“The fact that Brad has thrown the ball exceptionally well in Las Vegas, I think he’s earned the spot,” manager John Farrell said. “He’s got the opportunity to take this start and run with it.”

Whatever the case may be, Mills deserves at least a 10 game stint in some major league ball club’s starting rotation.

He’s dominated in Triple-A, unlike Brett Cecil, Jesse Litsch and Kyle Drabek. He’s got a lot to prove at the big league level, and I think he’s about ready to do it.

Zach Stewart is out, no longer part of the puzzle. Our depth of starting rotation makes losing Zach a moot point, (in the modern sense of the term).

I don’t think Luis Perez has earned his shot in the rotation, though look for him to rejoin the big club’s bullpen soon.

Carlos Villanueva will have to pitch better than he did Thursday over his next three starts, especially if Mills hangs around, Litsch pitches well in long relief and Kyle Drabek continues to bring his ERA back down to Earth.

Exciting times, indeed.

Chad Beck made the jump to Las Vegas this week. Deck McGuire is now a New Hampshire Fisher Cat, and Dustin McGowan is now up to pitching three innings per start with Dunedin. Joel Carreno and Henderson Alvarez are knocking on the Blue Jays door. It will be interesting to see if either gets the chance to show his stuff when the roster expands to 40 come September.

The race is always on. The climb is great – the fall is depth.

  1. Ricky Romero (26)
  2. Brandon Morrow (27)
  3. Brett Cecil (25)
  4. Carlos Villanueva (27)
  5. ↑Brad Mills (26)
  6. ↑Jesse Litsch (26) – Toronto bullpen
  7. ↑Kyle Drabek (23) – Las Vegas
  8. ↑Dustin McGowan (29) – Dunedin
  9. ↑Joel Carreno (24) -New Hampshire
  10. ↑Luis Perez (26) – Las Vegas
  11. ↑Henderson Alvarez (21) – New Hampshire
  12. Chad Jenkins (23) – New Hampshire
  13. ↑Deck McGuire (22) – New Hampshire
  14. ↑Chad Beck (26) – Las Vegas
  15. ↓Scott Richmond (31) – Las Vegas
  16. ↓Robert Ray (27) – Las Vegas
  17. ↑Nestor Molina (22) -Dunedin
  18. ↑B.J. LaMura  (30) – New Hampshire
  19. ↑Drew Hutchison (20) – Dunedin
  20. ↑Ryan Tepera (23) -Dunedin

Gelatinous movement


To animate the notion of a malleable starting rotation, composed of this organization’s top 20 starters, think gelatinous blob. Individual forces push toward and pull back from various spots, while overall movement trends in the same direction.

The blob is getting bigger.

It was last spotted heading south.

Engrossing New York and Boston is only a matter of time.

Brett Cecil is looking more like a #3 man. Tao of Stieb waxes poetic on the thighs of Cecil, which recovered from a rough last outing and a trying stretch to start the game against the Red Sox last night, going the distance in a losing cause at Fenway Park.

8 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 SO

Jesse Litsch got hit hard wearing the Las Vegas 51s uniform July 4. He’ll have to put together a few quality starts in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League before Jays brass will consider moving him back into the rotation. Andrew Stoeten at Drunk Jays Fans speculates on how the starting rotation numbers game may play out. Through two starts for Vegas, the Litsch line does not help his cause in the starting rotation sweepstakes:

6 IP, 8 ER , 16 H, 0 BB, 5 SO

Despite putting together a promising start to the season in Double-A, Reidier Gonzalez is again getting pounded by PCL hitters.

70.1 IP, 2.56 ERA, 1.21 WHIP – New Hampshire

22.1 IP, 11.69 ERA, 2.60 WHIP – Las Vegas 

It is highly unlikely he will be called up to Toronto when the roster expand from 25 to 40.

Joel Carreno has been an Eastern League leader and strikeout master for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats in 15 games this season.

90.2 IP (7th), 3.18 ERA (8th), 1.18 WHIP (8th), 111 SO (2nd)

Compare with Zach Stewart through 13 starts:

75.2 IP (26th), 4.04 ERA (25th), 1.41 WHIP (27th), 53 SO (41st)

1 Blue Jays Way provides an audio interview with Carreno  from his Lansing Lugnut days, as well as a written interview with Stewart following his recent return to New Hampshire.

Robert Ray, thought to have been released outright by the Blue Jays May 19, 2011, is, in fact, still in the organization. Signed as a free agent on May 21, 2011, Ray has been in the New Hampshire Fisher Cats starting rotation since June 12. He yesterday logged his second quality start in five tries.

27.0 IP, 7.33 ERA, 1.63 WHIP , 23 SO

Since his promotion from Dunedin to New Hampshire, Henderson Alvarez has started nine games for the Fisher Cats.

53.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 37 SO

Also making the jump to the Blue Jays Double-A starting rotation, Chad Jenkins has started five games. The 2009 first round draft pick would also seem to belong.

35.0 IP, 3.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 21 SO

Considering the Jays organization has promoted two of its better young pitchers (Drabek and Stewart) directly from Double-A to the Big Leagues, it is within the realm of possibility that Carreno, Alvarez, or Jenkins could get a look sooner than later.

Dustin McGowan, who was reported to have been shut down due to shoulder soreness, did miss a simulated start but threw two bullpen sessions instead last week. Tonight, July 6, he started his second game for the Dunedin Blue Jays, throwing two scoreless innings before youngster Drew Hutchison replaced him.

The 20-year-old Hutchison, a 15th round selection in 2009, has been promoted to Dunedin from the Lansing Lugnuts. In his first two starts, June 26 and July 1, Hutchison did not allow a run. He was pitching in his third game at the time of this posting.

Starting rotation sweepstakes

The race is always on. The climb is great – the fall is depth.
  1. Ricky Romero (26) Joel Carreno, prospect ascending the ranks
  2. Brandon Morrow (26)
  3. Brett Cecil (25) 
  4. Carlos Villanueva (27) 
  5. Jo Jo Reyes (26) 
  6. Brad Mills (26) – Las Vegas
  7. Jesse Litsch (26) – Las Vegas
  8. Kyle Drabek (23) – Las Vegas
  9. Zach Stewart (24) – New Hampshire
  10. Dustin McGowan (29) – Dunedin
  11. Scott Richmond (31) – Las Vegas
  12. Joel Carreno (24) – New Hampshire
  13. Henderson Alvarez (21) – New Hampshire
  14. Chad Jenkins (23) – New Hampshire
  15. Deck McGuire (21) – Dunedin
  16. Nestor Molina (22) – Dunedin
  17. Reidier Gonzalez (25) – Las Vegas
  18. Mike MacDonald (29) – Las Vegas
  19. Chad Beck (26) – New Hampshire
  20. Drew Hutchison (20) – Dunedin

Toronto

3.  Brett Cecil – June 30, 6.1 IP, 6 ER, defensive lapses

5.  Jo Jo Reyes – July 3, 6.0 IP, 4 ER

Las Vegas

6.  Brad Mills –  July 2, 7 IP, 2 ER

7.  Jesse Litsch – July 4, 3 IP, 7 ER

8.  Kyle Drabek – June 30, 6 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB

New Hampshire

9.  Zach Stewart – July 3, 6 IP, O ER (3 R)

Dunedin

10.  Dustin McGowan – July 2, 33 pitches, 2/3 IP, 3 ER, defensive lapses

Following his 30-day rehabilitation, if he is not yet ready to rejoin the Blue Jays, McGowan may rest and/or start a new 30-day rehab stint.