On this, the evening of Brad Mill’s second start of the season, I renew my claim that anything can happen in this starting rotation.
A guy named Brett Lawrie also takes his first career at bats this eve.
Seven straight balls from Brad Mills in the third inning. I digress, or not.
If the wind does not blow in Mills’ direction tonight, does Litsch then rejoin the rotation?
Luis Perez is also in the running. Jays management would seem to want to have a look at him in the rotation, or so it has been suggested by the Jays Talk. Since Mills has already thrown a few starts over the past three seasons, he now needs a string of quality starts to stick around.
One out, two on, bottom of three. Blue Birds four, Orange ones two.
If and when he does join the rotation, Luis Perez will have a slightly longer leash than Mills, given that it would be his first opportunity.
One gets the sense that this will be the last best chance for Brad Mills to permanently join the ranks of MLB starters.
If only in shades, does watching Brad Mills pitch remind you of a young Jimmy Key?
He’s out of the third. Two runners left on.
Brett Lawrie to take his second at bat. No longer batting 1000.
Mills survives the fourth.
Alan Ashby and Jerry Howarth speak in ominous tones about Mills’ shaky control, leaving pitches well above and up in the zone. Can he settle in for another few innings?
Three up, three down in the fifth. Mills in position for the win.
Jerry Howarth just called Brad Mills a magician. Alan Ashby corrects himself on having judged Mills too harshly.
It’s clear Alan Ashby does not get a good feeling watching Brad Mills, pitching high with a fastball of 86 mph.
Mills then walks two, loads the bases, and allows another run.
Jays 4, Orioles 3.
In comes Perez to get the Jays out of the sixth.
Jays jump ahead to a 5-3 lead in the top of the seventh.
Litsch comes in to get the Jays through the seventh.
It looks like neither Perez or Litsch will fill Villanueva’s rotation spot.
Could it be the second coming of Kyle Drabek? Or the first coming of Henderson Alvarez?
Frank Francisco continues his streak of effectiveness with a clean eighth inning.
Brad Mills will earn the victory on 5.1 IP and 3 ER, 4 BB and 5 SO, if John Rauch can lock it down in the ninth.
Rauch has been our most reliable closer of the season, and that’s not saying much at all.
I look forward to saying goodbye to this man, though not as excruciating as Kevin Gregg, he is less effective and certainly a place holder with a very limited shelf life in Toronto.
He did it. Rauch the save, Mills the win and most likely another whirl (start), despite not pitching nearly as well tonight as he did in his last outing.
He may be one of these guys who can buck the trend. Maybe he can get away with throwing up in the zone, said Ashby.
Welcome Colby Rasmus. Hopefully, he and Travis Snider will push each other to meet their ubiquitously spoken of potential.
As of Wednesday July 27, GM Alex Anthopolous, video seen at Getting Blanked, had only stated that Brad Mills was called up for temporary bullpen depth, until the Blue Jays new pitchers (P.J. Walters and Trevor Miller) arrived. A decision had not yet been made on who would start Saturday’s game. How quickly things change in these starting rotation sweepstakes. Brad Mills is our #5.
According to Mike Wilner on the Jays Talk, Mills is likely getting the start today as a way of showing him off as potential trade bait, before the deadline strikes Sunday. The following John Farrell quote from bluejays. com, provides some context:
“The fact that Brad has thrown the ball exceptionally well in Las Vegas, I think he’s earned the spot,” manager John Farrell said. “He’s got the opportunity to take this start and run with it.”
Whatever the case may be, Mills deserves at least a 10 game stint in some major league ball club’s starting rotation.
He’s dominated in Triple-A, unlike Brett Cecil, Jesse Litsch and Kyle Drabek. He’s got a lot to prove at the big league level, and I think he’s about ready to do it.
Zach Stewart is out, no longer part of the puzzle. Our depth of starting rotation makes losing Zach a moot point, (in the modern sense of the term).
I don’t think Luis Perez has earned his shot in the rotation, though look for him to rejoin the big club’s bullpen soon.
Carlos Villanueva will have to pitch better than he did Thursday over his next three starts, especially if Mills hangs around, Litsch pitches well in long relief and Kyle Drabek continues to bring his ERA back down to Earth.
Exciting times, indeed.
Chad Beck made the jump to Las Vegas this week. Deck McGuire is now a New Hampshire Fisher Cat, and Dustin McGowan is now up to pitching three innings per start with Dunedin. Joel Carreno and Henderson Alvarez are knocking on the Blue Jays door. It will be interesting to see if either gets the chance to show his stuff when the roster expands to 40 come September.
- Ricky Romero (26)
- Brandon Morrow (27)
- Brett Cecil (25)
- Carlos Villanueva (27)
- ↑Brad Mills (26)
- ↑Jesse Litsch (26) – Toronto bullpen
- ↑Kyle Drabek (23) – Las Vegas
- ↑Dustin McGowan (29) – Dunedin
- ↑Joel Carreno (24) -New Hampshire
- ↑Luis Perez (26) – Las Vegas
- ↑Henderson Alvarez (21) – New Hampshire
- Chad Jenkins (23) – New Hampshire
- ↑Deck McGuire (22) – New Hampshire
- ↑Chad Beck (26) – Las Vegas
- ↓Scott Richmond (31) – Las Vegas
- ↓Robert Ray (27) – Las Vegas
- ↑Nestor Molina (22) -Dunedin
- ↑B.J. LaMura (30) – New Hampshire
- ↑Drew Hutchison (20) – Dunedin
- ↑Ryan Tepera (23) -Dunedin
Ricky Romero – leadership shown, all-star calibre, struggles with Red Sox
Kyle Drabek – demotion to Las Vegas, return to rotation a challenge
Brett Cecil – fastball up to 93 mph again, rotation mainstay rest of way
Jo Jo Reyes – unfocused, #5 spot in starting rotation, on the bubble
Jesse Litsch – rehab stint in Las Vegas, rotation spot in doubt
Brandon Morrow – shades of 2010, momentum, on verge of breakthrough
Carlos Villaneuva – exceeding expectations, #4 starter, trade bait
Sean Camp – Zen master of eliciting ground balls, hittable, 1 blown save
Jason Frasor – sure hand, candidate for closer role, 2 blown saves
John Rauch – hothead, very hittable, 7 saves in 9 tries
Mark Rzepczynski – reliable middle-relief, 3 blown saves, 3 extra base hits allowed
Casey Jannssen – placed on 15-day DL, retroactive to June 15
Octavio Dotel – improved effectiveness, innings eater
Frank Francisco – below average closer, 4 blown saves, unprofessional tendency
Luis Perez – helpful middle relief, unestablished rookie, 2 blown saves
Aaron Hill – too cautious, shell of 2009 self, Blue Jay end near
Adam Lind – dialed in, future batting champion, all-star production
Travis Snider – 3 doubles in MLB return, deserving outfield starter
Jason Nix – below Mendoza line, designated for assignment July 2
Jose Molina – above-average backup catcher, effective place holder
Corey Patterson – horrendous decision-making on base paths + outfield, liability
Jose Bautista – constant development, all-star, MVP candidate
J.P. Arencibia – good rookie production, sunken BA
Rajai Davis – lightning speed, awful slump, too many SO, second half producer
Edwin Encarnacion – natural DH, streaky, on the bubble
Yunel Escobar – all-star calibre statistics, improved power + work ethic
Juan Rivera – place holder role over, DFA July 3
John McDonald – above Mendoza line again, unsung Toronto hero
Mike McCoy – down + up again, good OBP, useful professional
Eric Thames – spark plug, confident, room for improvement in SO/BB ratio
- Ricky Romero (26)
- Brandon Morrow (26)
- Brett Cecil (25)
- Carlos Villanueva (27)
- Jo Jo Reyes (26)
- Brad Mills (26) – Las Vegas
- Jesse Litsch (26) – Las Vegas
- Kyle Drabek (23) – Las Vegas
- Zach Stewart (24) – New Hampshire
- Dustin McGowan (29) – Dunedin
- Scott Richmond (31) – Las Vegas
- Joel Carreno (24) – New Hampshire
- Henderson Alvarez (21) – New Hampshire
- Chad Jenkins (23) – New Hampshire
- Deck McGuire (21) – Dunedin
- Nestor Molina (22) – Dunedin
- Reidier Gonzalez (25) – Las Vegas
- Mike MacDonald (29) – Las Vegas
- Chad Beck (26) – New Hampshire
- Drew Hutchison (20) – Dunedin
3. Brett Cecil – June 30, 6.1 IP, 6 ER, defensive lapses
5. Jo Jo Reyes – July 3, 6.0 IP, 4 ER
6. Brad Mills – July 2, 7 IP, 2 ER
7. Jesse Litsch – July 4, 3 IP, 7 ER
8. Kyle Drabek – June 30, 6 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB
9. Zach Stewart – July 3, 6 IP, O ER (3 R)
10. Dustin McGowan – July 2, 33 pitches, 2/3 IP, 3 ER, defensive lapses
Following his 30-day rehabilitation, if he is not yet ready to rejoin the Blue Jays, McGowan may rest and/or start a new 30-day rehab stint.
Jesse Litsch barrels along the comeback trail, making the jump from Lansing to New Hampshire. His two starts for the Double-A Fisher Cats have bested the one in A-ball the previous week, where he gave up three runs in two(+) innings of work.
After 3.2 shutout innings June 23, Litsch lasted five innings and gave up one run June 28. His next start will likely take place in a Las Vegas 51s uniform.
The question, however, is whether the Jays starting rotation will a have a space available for Litsch when he is ready. With Villanueva pitching so reliably, I would be inclined to think not yet.
If anyone gets the yank, it should be Jo Jo Reyes, especially if his next start ends as soon as his last one did (3.2 IP, 6 ER).
The .363 blog posted an interesting take yesterday on the shelf life of Jo Jo.
Brad Mills, June 26, went six innings for the 51s, allowing four earned runs, days before getting passed up for a Toronto promotion. Though he seems to have hit a bit of a rough patch in the Pacific Coast League, statistically, he remains at the top among all starting pitchers there:
3.72 ERA (3rd), 101.2 IP (2nd), 1.28 WHIP (2nd), 92 SO (1st)
Brett Cecil, June 23, also went six innings for the 51s in his last start, allowing five earned runs. The Jays called him up anyway June 29. Cecil’s velocity has returned, touching 93 and averaging 89 mph, which returns the 6-10 mph differential considered necessary for an effective change-up.
Discounting two God-awful performances for Las Vegas, Cecil has almost matched Brad Mills in core performance measurements. Cecil also has something Mills may never have: a 15 win season at the major league level.
In related news, the Zach Stewart flirtation is over. See you in September, Zach. New Hampshire’s lucky to have you. I’m sure you will be fighting hard for your return and a pass to a proper rookie season in 2012.
I still think his ticket ought to include a pass through Las Vegas.
Upon being reactivated to the 25-man roster, Cecil alluded to the very real difference between pitching in the Pacific Coast and Majors, saying he had never had to base pitch selection on which way the wind is blowing. Perhaps it is that sort of thing the Jays want to avoid with Zach Stewart, having returned him to the Fisher Cats of the Double-A Eastern League.
Only nine PCL starting pitchers now hold an ERA below 4.00, while just 27 have ERA below 5.00 in the 16-team league.
Among them, the Jays forgettable 5th starter of Spring 2010, Dana Eveland, is enjoying a bit of success in that league. His 7-4 record and 3.86 ERA through 16 starts (91 IP) for the Albuquerue Isotopes may serve to give the 27-year-old another shot with a major league club. Just so long as it’s not with the Jays, preferably with an AL East squad. Eveland went 3-4 with a 6.45 ERA in 44.2 IP before the Jays traded him to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Ronald Uviedo, June 1, 2010.
As regards another former 5th starter, I would be shocked to ever see Scott Richmond start a regular season game for the Blue Jays. The #3 man in Las Vegas, has gone 4-6 with a 6.26 ERA and given up 14 HR in hitter-friendly air. In my estimation, the April 2009 MLB rookie of the month, now sits 11th in the organization’s depth chart.
My characterization of depth chart is one of constant malleability that considers current performance, health, and major league readiness as its main criteria, but also takes into account perceived statistical blips and temporary setbacks, such as in the case of Brett Cecil. My top five, though not in the same order as Bluejays. com or Torontostar. com, will not include players outside the starting rotation.
That said, when Litsch was still with the Lansing Lugnuts and Cecil still finding his form with the Las Vegas 51s, I believe Brad Mills was the most deserving candidate to take on the spot surrendered by Kyle Drabek.
Since Mark Rzepczynski has adjusted so well to his new role as lefty-specialist in middle relief, I’ve left him off this list.
- Ricky Romero
- Brandon Morrow
- Brett Cecil
- Carlos Villanueva
- Jo Jo Reyes
- Jesse Litsch
- Brad Mills
- Kyle Drabek
- Zach Stewart
- Dustin McGowan
- Scott Richmond
Jays 5, Cards 1
Carlos Villanueva is feeling right at home in the Blue Jays starting rotation.
Since Kyle Drabek left town, Villanueva has moved into accommodation at place #4.
He’s comfortable in the neighbourhood. He likes his new home. He’s putting up curtains.
Ghostrunner on First offers a thorough introduction and facial hair and statistical analysis of our new kid on the starting block.
Villanueva improved to 5-1, allowing two runs over six innings last night. He struck out three and walked one, his ERA down to 3.15.
The swing-man, who started the season out of the bullpen, will make it difficult for former rotation residents Litsch and Cecil to move back in.
If Kyle Drabek finds the form shown in April and May, finding spaces in the starting rotation gets more complicated.
The landlord and general manager have much to discuss this summer.
For now, Villanueva has found his home sweet home.
Place #4 is his to lose.
Reds 2, Blues 1
Well, another winnable game lost. That’s baseball. Ahhh, that’s Blue Jays baseball…..and part of being a fan.
The game hinged on a moment in the top of the 5th. The Jays led 1-0 and were threatening, with runners on the corners, no outs, and at the plate Mr. Johnny Mac, who had provided a wonderful moment as a Father’s Day homerun-hitter last year, but who this time popped up a bunt attempt to Joey Votto. The Toronto-native threw quickly to 3rd base, doubling up a lazy Juan Rivera. That effectively neutralized the threat.
Despite my Blue Jay-bias, and the absolute fact that I would have preferred he not make that play, I say thank you to Joey Votto, nonetheless. In a seven-minute interview, you managed to remove stigma and start a conversation in Major League Baseball about an often silent injury:
In light of the difficulties Votto faced in 2008 and 2009, in the wake of his Father’s passing, and the sincerity and generosity of spirit with which he handled the depression he suffered, it seemed appropriate that he would play the role of catalyst on this day.
Carlos Villanueva, once again, pitched like a bonafide starter, allowing two earned runs on seven hits over seven innings with three strikeouts and no walks. This Father’s day loss rounds out a series with the Reds that saw Blue Jays starters give up just one walk, the silver lining on this overcast Sunday, and a refreshing trend to be sure.
Over the years, in large part a result of the travel associated with his work, I have enjoyed time and baseball games with my Father at various stadiums, including County, Shea and Dodger, Victory Field, and Skydome. I’m a fortunate son. Thanks Dad.
In recent weeks, We talked about a baseball road trip to Cincinnati, from nearby Indianapolis, where I’m helping tame the wildness of his property. But since work commitments to the Indy Car World Series take him out of state this weekend, I instead turn the channel from Jays v. Reds on Fox Sports Ohio to the Milwaukee Mile on abc. Good luck to Dad, Alex Lloyd, James Jakes, and the Dale Coyne Racing Team this afternoon. No matter the results, I am always a fan.
Happy Father’s Day.
Kyle Drabek – heart on sleeve, raging bull of emotion on the mound, wild
Brett Cecil – fastball down to 90 mph, 8 HRs allowed in 4 starts before demotion
Jo Jo Reyes – 26-game winless streak snapped, emotions in check, weak pick-off move
Jesse Litsch – fastball + compete-level return, rotation spot deserved when healthy
Brandon Morrow – slow start, potent arsenal, control a work in progress
Carlos Villaneuva – good stuff, reliable from bullpen, exceeding expectations as starter
Sean Camp – ground ball out master, outstanding April/ May, rocky June
Jason Frasor – painstakingly deliberate approach, sure hand, best season pace
John Rauch – shades of K-Gregg, less careful, Jays best closer not saying much
Mark Rzepczynski – odd man out, smooth transition to pen, control issues lately
Casey Jannssen – bullpen stud, return to 2007 form, confident presence
Octavio Dotel – ineffective, innings eater during big losses, oldest man in pen
Frank Francisco – power + unreliability, below average closer
Luis Perez – helpful middle relief, verdict still out, given small sample-size
Aaron Hill – stats split difference between 2009 and 2010 season, too cautious
Adam Lind – back in the saddle again, Indiana boy in perfect spot behind Bautista
Travis Snider – lack of confidence, swing kinks, walk to strikeout ratio improved
Jason Nix – clutch hitting in April, non-existent May, battling Mendoza line
Jose Molina –calm in eye of storm, excellent back-up catcher, hitting well
Corey Patterson – less than smart base running, seeing good pitches
Jose Bautista – BA + OBP + OPS off the charts, home run mastery
J.P. Arencibia – great rookie production, ability + rapport with pitchers improving
Rajai Davis – speed, nice addition, injury riddled, wait and see
Edwin Encarnacion – defensive liability, disappeared home run production
Yunel Escobar – great start overall, occasional odd no-throw decisions
Juan Rivera – horrendous start, rebounded offensively, first base fill-in admirable
John McDonald – decreased production, no fearful demeanour, usual infield brilliance
Mike McCoy – future John McDonald, reliable + energetic uber-utility man